Oil slides again and Nasdaq futures recover as US votes in the midterms

• US: Futures are the only live read on the American session. S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.75%, after both rose sharply around 08:30 ET. On Monday the cash market closed with the S&P 500 down 0.51% at 7,541.4 and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.07% at 25,164.36, now 9.23% below its 52-week high. The Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98.
• Europe (mid-session): The FTSE 100 is down 0.45% at 10,712.49, held back by its heavy weighting in oil companies. The DAX is flat at +0.03%, the CAC 40 is up 0.53% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.23%. All of them jumped at the same moment as US futures.
• Asia (closed): Tech stocks were sold hard. The Kospi and the Taiwan Weighted index each ended down 3.59%. The Hang Seng rose 0.57% and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.82%. Tokyo was shut for a public holiday, so the Nikkei's last close is Monday's, down 0.33%.

Oil is driving most of the morning's moves. Brent fell more than 7% on Monday after Tehran and Washington both said they were open to diplomacy. Iran's foreign minister said a proposal being negotiated through Qatari mediators could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within about two days if Washington met certain conditions. Early on Tuesday crude bounced on reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. It has since reversed: Brent is at $101.33, down 3.28%, and WTI is at $94.14, down 2.41%. Most of that fall came in one burst around 08:30 ET, and reporting has not yet explained what triggered it. Cheaper oil lowers inflation risk, which helps consumer and rate-sensitive stocks and hurts energy producers.

The Nasdaq's fall on Monday came mostly from chipmakers. Marvell agreed a $115bn all-stock deal to buy Lumentum, and both shares fell hard: Marvell lost 12.72% and Lumentum 18.59%. Investors questioned the price, and because Lumentum holders are paid in Marvell shares, they stay exposed to Marvell's recent slide. Apple and Palantir also fell after hours even though both beat forecasts, as investors focused on Apple's margin outlook and Palantir's slowing bookings. Asia's chip-heavy markets took the full hit overnight. This morning's Nasdaq futures rally recovers only part of Monday's loss.

The midterms are the other weight on the session. Polls close tonight and prediction markets give Democrats roughly a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Treasury yields are rising despite cheaper oil: the 10-year is up 2.3bp at 4.917% and the 30-year is up 2.5bp at 5.294%. Higher long-term yields reduce the present value of future profits, which matters most for growth stocks.

Risk appetite is steady but not confident. The VIX is 20.77, down 0.38 points, and the MOVE index of bond-market volatility ended Monday at 100.36. Monday's US breadth tells a different story from the index: across PrimerIQ's US universe, 3,368 stocks rose and 2,739 fell even as the S&P 500 dropped. The damage was concentrated in a few large sectors. Consumer discretionary rose 2.41% and financials 1.86%, while technology fell 2.95% and energy 3.96%. Asia was broadly weak, with 3,899 risers against 8,517 fallers in our universe and a median tech move of -4.32%. Safe havens are quiet: gold is up 0.14% at $3,975.2 and the dollar index is flat at 101.72.

No major US release was scheduled for 08:30 ET today. Monday's data gave mixed North American manufacturing PMIs and disappointing US construction spending. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.85%, as expected.

Still to come: September US factory orders at 10:00 ET, with September JOLTS job openings also on today's schedule. Polls close across the US this evening and results will come in overnight. ADP payrolls and the services PMIs follow on Wednesday.

Pfizer beat forecasts with adjusted EPS of $0.87 against a $0.72 estimate. It raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $62–64bn from $60.5–62.5bn and its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.95–3.05 from $2.80–3.00. Eaton reported what it called record third-quarter results, with record orders and backlog. Waters beat by 2.6%, with adjusted EPS of $4.10.