Futures edge up as a Korean chip rally meets the Fed's 'hawkish hold'

• US: The S&P 500 closed last night up 0.6% at 7,722.6, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18% and the Dow was flat (+0.03%). Futures are the only live read on today: S&P 500 futures are 0.21% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.36% higher as of 08:45 ET.
• Europe (mid-session): Little changed. The DAX is up 0.33%, the CAC 40 0.12% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.05%, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 10,687.
• Asia (closed): Korea was the story. The Kospi ended up 6.63% at 6,012.44 and Taiwan's index gained 2.04%. The Nikkei finished 1.08% higher, Shanghai 0.91% and the Hang Seng 0.23%.

Asia's surge came from one set of results. SK hynix reported record third-quarter revenue and operating profit on demand for AI memory chips, and announced shareholder returns of more than 100 trillion won. The shares rose nearly 11% and Samsung Electronics about 9%. Analysts said the numbers eased fears that the memory-chip cycle was peaking. Our own Asian tech sector median rose 3.16%, so this was a sector-wide move, not just one stock.

The lift has barely reached Europe or US futures, and the Fed is the reason. A 'hawkish hold' is expected at 14:00 ET: the Fed is likely to keep rates where they are after last month's quarter-point rise. The open question is how Chair Kevin Warsh frames the pause and whether he leaves room for another increase before the year is out. Inflation is above target and rising again. Warsh has also dropped traditional forward guidance, meaning the Fed no longer signals its likely next move in advance, so the tone of his press conference matters more than usual. The number of policymakers who vote against the decision will also be read as a signal.

Energy is the other cross-current. European gas prices hit what Reuters called fresh 2022 peaks after Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites. Qatari mediators have also put a new draft deal to end the war in front of Iran, and Tehran is due to reply by the end of the week. Brent crude is down 2.26% at $111.31 while WTI is up 2.07%. That split between the two oil benchmarks has no clean explanation and is best not over-read.

Risk appetite is steady rather than eager. The VIX, Wall Street's gauge of expected stock volatility, is at 17.4, little changed on the day. The MOVE index, its equivalent for bond volatility, fell 4.22% to 97.87 yesterday, so bond traders went into the Fed day calmer. Breadth was healthy in yesterday's US session: our universe had 3,611 rising stocks and 2,405 falling, a ratio of 1.5. Asia was broader still at 2.01. Yesterday's sector spread, however, points to a lopsided tape. The technology sector fund rose 1.7% while energy fell 2.05% and consumer staples 0.92%. Treasuries are steady before the Fed: the 10-year yield is at 4.997%, up 0.4bp. Gold is down 0.16% at $4,068.

The 08:30 ET slot carried no major US data this morning. It went to the UK Budget instead. Chancellor John Healey had billed it as deliberately 'boring', with no major changes to tax, spending or borrowing. Sterling has still lost 0.42% to $1.3289, and the FTSE 100 has not moved. US natural gas is up 14.05% at $3.076, in step with the surge in European gas.

Still to come today: the Bank of Canada decision at 09:45 ET, where a rise would be its first in three years. Then the Fed statement at 14:00 ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 14:30 ET.

GE Vernova is the standout of the pre-market reports. Its adjusted EPS of $4.81 beat the consensus of about $4.01, orders rose 96% on a like-for-like basis to $29bn, it raised its 2026 guidance and doubled its share buyback authorisation to $20bn. The shares are indicated higher, though reports differ on how much. Vertiv ($2.21 against $1.82 expected) and Phillips 66 ($14.08 against $11.79) also beat clearly. ADP, Aon, TE Connectivity and Boston Scientific were roughly in line. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.