Lula's win sinks Brazil 14% as Anthropic's filing lifts Wall Street tech

• US: The S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher at 7,676.77 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.82% to 26,169.38. The Dow lagged with a 0.28% gain to 52,361.58. The S&P is still 2.1% below its 52-week high.
• Europe: Gains were broad. The DAX finished up 0.91% at 25,410.84, the CAC 40 rose 0.83% to 7,847.32 and the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.79%. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.72% at 10,767.33.
• Asia: Markets closed before the US catalyst arrived, and the region split. The Nikkei fell 1.14% to 62,189.65 and the Kospi dropped 1.16% to 5,469.47. The Hang Seng rose 1.21% and the Shanghai Composite gained 1.08%.
• Brazil: The Bovespa was down 13.9% at 176,608 in late trade.

Brazil is the day's main story. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday's runoff with 51.8% of the vote to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%. Investors had bet on a Bolsonaro win after his first-round lead, because he had promised to cut the deficit. Lula's win reversed that bet. The budget gap is above 9% of GDP, and markets doubt Lula will close it. Interest-rate swaps jumped, the real fell sharply and B3 halted trading at the open. Bloomberg said it was the first circuit-breaker halt since early 2020. Bolsonaro has not conceded and wants the result annulled, so political uncertainty has not ended with the vote.

Wall Street had its own story. Anthropic published its IPO filing, which showed more than $16bn of first-half revenue. That eased fears that had dragged on AI stocks, and chipmakers led the rebound. The effect was narrow. Technology carried the market while communication services fell, with Verizon sliding after a revenue miss.

Oil fell after Qatari mediators went to Tehran, which raised hopes that US–Iran tensions would ease. Brent dropped 5.6% to $110.18 from Friday's elevated level, and WTI fell 1.91% to $101.30. Analysts warned the relief may not last because Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities continued over the weekend. Asia's slide came before the Anthropic filing and has no clear single cause. Investors there were positioning cautiously ahead of a week of big earnings and central-bank decisions.

Fear eased in the US but stayed in place elsewhere. The VIX fell 5.45% to 18.39 and the MOVE index, which tracks expected bond-market swings, slipped to 102.19. Treasuries barely moved: the 10-year yield fell 0.2bp to 4.986%. The rally was narrow. Technology (XLK) gained 1.69% while communication services (XLC) fell 1.57%, a three-point gap that shows how few sectors drove the day. Europe's rally was broader: by PrimerIQ's count, 2,142 European listings rose and 1,476 fell, and UK advancers outnumbered decliners 524 to 278. Asia went the other way, with 3,678 rising and 6,280 falling, and technology was the weakest sector with a median fall of 2.5%. The dollar index rose 0.21% to 102.03 and gold added 0.48% to $4,027.10. That is mild demand for safety, not a rush into safe havens.

Monday's calendar was light. The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index came out at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT). It rose to 13.4 from 9.8 in September, a reading that suggests factory activity is picking up but did not move markets. Nothing else of consequence is due tonight. The week's main event is the Federal Reserve, whose two-day meeting starts on Tuesday. The decision is due on Wednesday afternoon (ET), and markets broadly expect Chair Kevin Warsh to hold rates while signalling caution about future cuts.

Verizon beat earnings estimates, at $1.31 a share against $1.27 expected, and had its strongest third quarter for postpaid phone additions in five years. Revenue still fell short of consensus and the shares fell, a sign that investors now care more about sales growth than subscriber numbers. After the close, Cadence Design beat on both earnings and revenue, raised its 2026 revenue-growth outlook to 21% and reported a backlog of $8.2bn. Its shares edged higher after hours. Cemex earned $0.28 a share against $0.21 expected.