What moved
The American day is being set by oil, not by data. S&P 500 futures are trading 0.31% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.86% lower, unwinding part of a strong Tuesday close in which the S&P 500 ended 0.89% higher at 7,509.20, the Nasdaq Composite 1.29% higher and the Dow 0.74% higher.
Europe is mid-session and going the other way. The FTSE 100 is up 1.43% at 10,737.73, the CAC 40 up 0.98% and the DAX up 0.46%, with the Euro Stoxx 50 adding 0.32%. Asia closed before the worst of the crude move and was mostly heavy: the Nikkei 225 finished 0.18% lower, the Hang Seng 0.95% lower, while the Shanghai Composite ended flat at 0.07% higher and the Kospi closed up 0.74%.
Why
Brent crude is 3.19% higher at $93.91 a barrel and WTI 2.20% higher at $86.78 after the US carried out an eleventh straight night of strikes on Iran and the Secretary of State said Tehran was not serious about talks. With Houthi threats to shipping in the frame as well, the market is pricing a risk to transit routes rather than an actual loss of barrels — which is why crude has moved far more than anything else on the board.
That single move explains most of the regional split. Europe's headline indices carry heavy energy and mining weightings and are being pulled up by them; the US futures complex is being pulled down, because dearer crude feeds straight into headline inflation and therefore into the discount rate applied to long-duration equities. The asymmetry between S&P 500 futures at -0.31% and Nasdaq 100 futures at -0.86% is that mechanism in miniature — the more of a company's value sits in distant cash flows, the more a rate-path repricing hurts.
There is a second, unrelated weight on the Nasdaq: Alphabet and Tesla report after tonight's close, the first megacaps of the season, and the market is unwilling to add technology risk before it hears whether AI capital spending is still being rewarded.
Sentiment & risk appetite
This is caution, not fear. The VIX is 3.4% higher at 17.63, comfortably below its 52-week high, and the dollar index is actually a touch softer at -0.08% — there is no scramble into the classic haven. Gold, up 1.49% at $4,131.90, is the exception, and it is arguably trading as an inflation hedge rather than a fear trade.
The more interesting reading is in rates: the MOVE index of Treasury volatility jumped 9.55% in Tuesday's session to 74.67 even though 10-year and 30-year yields have barely twitched today, up 1.0 and 1.1 basis points. Investors are paying up for protection against a rate path that oil could yet disturb.
Tuesday's underlying tape was broad — 3,628 advancers against 2,440 decliners across PrimerIQ's US universe, a ratio of 1.49 — but the sector spread was stark, technology up 2.89% against consumer staples down 0.94%. Momentum, not defence.
Economic calendar
No first-tier US macro release landed at 08:30 ET this morning, which leaves the session unusually exposed to the oil story and to earnings. The one number with real potential to move crude is the EIA weekly petroleum status report later this morning, where the consensus looks for a draw of roughly 1.5 million barrels after last week's similar decline; a larger draw into an already-tight geopolitical bid would sharpen the move. Trade policy is the other live thread, with new US tariffs on Brazil taking effect today and the expiring 10% global tariff regime awaiting replacement.
Earnings
GE Vernova opened the pre-market slate with adjusted earnings of $2.47 a share against a $3.16 consensus, a 21.8% miss, and the shares slipped despite record orders and a raised full-year revenue outlook — a reminder that beating on demand does not compensate for missing on margin. AT&T went the other way, delivering $0.65 against $0.59, a 10.2% beat, and traded higher before the bell. Philip Morris also reported and updated its full-year guidance.