WTI back above $100 drags the Dow as Kering and Volvo Cars sink Europe

• US: The Dow ended 1.23% lower at 52,215.16. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq Composite lost only 0.21%, to 25,955.34.
• Europe: The FTSE 100 closed 0.32% down at 10,690.36 and the DAX fell 0.75% to 25,181.65. The CAC 40 lost 0.36% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.31%.
• Asia: The Kospi ended 3.23% lower, the Nikkei 2.98% lower at 62,693.16 and the Hang Seng 2.36% lower. The Shanghai Composite eased 0.61%.

Oil drove the day. WTI settled 3.83% higher at $103.28 a barrel as traders bet that the US–Iran conflict will flare up again, after President Trump said further strikes on Iran remain possible. Dearer crude hits markets in two ways. It raises inflation expectations, which pushes yields up: the 10-year Treasury rose 3.5 basis points to 4.988%. It also squeezes businesses with big fuel bills, and US airlines fell sharply. That fits the shape of the US session. Energy led, while consumer, financial and other rate-sensitive sectors fell. American Express weighed on the Dow after a revenue miss.

The AI sell-off that started on Thursday did not get worse. It had been driven by worries about the cost of AI infrastructure and how it is being financed. Technology was one of only three S&P sectors to rise, although heavily indebted AI cloud providers such as CoreWeave stayed under pressure.

In Europe, company results mattered more than the economic data. Kering fell 16.57% after a disappointing quarter for Gucci, with weak Chinese demand blamed. Volvo Car lost 24.23% after a bigger-than-expected operating loss and plans to cut 2,500 more jobs. Safran dropped 10.00% after its results and dragged defence stocks down with it. Political unrest in France added to the pressure on Paris. In Asia, the index losses look worse than the day really was. The main indices ended well off their lows, and our own count across Asian listings shows 5,952 shares rising and 3,987 falling, so the damage was concentrated in a few chip heavyweights.

The VIX, Wall Street's main volatility gauge, rose 0.42 to 19.45, which signals caution rather than alarm. Bond-market volatility (the MOVE index) fell 3.3% to 103.31 even as yields rose. The gap between the best and worst sectors tells you most: energy rose 2.6% while consumer staples fell 1.92%, so the gains were narrow. The usual safe havens did not attract buyers. Gold fell 1.27% to $4,008.90 and the dollar index rose 0.21% to 101.82. That pattern points to a market worried about inflation, not a slowing economy. Across Europe, PrimerIQ's own breadth count shows 2,092 decliners against 1,498 advancers.

S&P Global's flash composite PMI for the US, an early survey of business activity, fell to 57.6 from 58.4. Services slipped to 57.9 from 58.8 and manufacturing edged up to 56.0. Any reading above 50 means activity is growing, so the economy is still expanding fast. The more worrying detail is prices: the survey's measure of the prices companies charge rose to 59.8, its highest since August 2022. The University of Michigan's final October consumer sentiment reading was 48.0, a tenth below September. One-year inflation expectations held at 4.7%, and five-year expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.3%.

In Britain, the flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, ahead of the 51.8 consensus. That strengthened bets on a Bank of England rate rise in November. Sterling still fell 0.29% to $1.3365 as the dollar firmed. No more major data is due today. Moody's decision on France's credit rating is expected after the European close.

American Express beat on earnings, with EPS of $4.68 against a $4.47 forecast. But revenue of $14.5bn fell short of the $14.8bn expected, and the company announced about 3,500 job cuts; the shares fell. SLB edged past forecasts with EPS of $0.64 against $0.62, Infosys narrowly missed, and Eni's results beat forecasts and lifted the shares 5.82%. No major company reported after the US close.