Oil bounces and Asian chip stocks slide as US goes to the polls

• US (closed Monday): The averages split. The Dow ended 0.41% higher at 51,983.98, while the S&P 500 lost 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.36. Futures are the only live read on today's US session: S&P 500 futures are 0.32% lower at 7,550 and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.2%.
• Europe (closed Monday): Every major index finished up. The FTSE 100 gained 0.29% to 10,761.33, the DAX 0.63%, the CAC 40 0.98% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.73%.
• Asia: Chip-heavy markets took the hit. The Kospi and Taiwan Weighted each closed 3.59% lower. The Shanghai Composite is trading 0.82% down and the Hang Seng 0.24% up. Tokyo was shut for a public holiday, so the Nikkei's last close is still Monday's 0.33% fall.

Oil drove Monday's trading. Iran's president said the supreme leader had given the government authority to pursue talks through mediators, with Qatar circulating a draft proposal. After the US close, President Trump said he was not planning to strike Iran once the midterms were over. Investors had feared exactly that, because strikes could provoke attacks on Gulf energy sites. Cheaper crude split the US market by sector. Energy was the worst sector, down 3.96%. Consumer discretionary was the best, up 2.41%, because lower fuel costs leave households more to spend. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.5bp as the inflation threat eased. None of this is a settlement, and Brent has recovered 1.78% to $106.64 this morning.

Technology pulled the other way. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal: 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share, valuing Lumentum at about $115bn including debt. Marvell fell 12.72% and Lumentum 18.59%. When the buyer pays in its own shares, a falling Marvell price also cuts what Lumentum holders receive. Oracle fell 8.76% as well, and the tech sector ended 2.95% lower.

That chip selling reached Seoul and Taipei, where investors were also cutting risk before the US vote. In Australia, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote. It blamed higher fuel and commodity prices tied to the Middle East conflict and does not expect inflation back near target until late 2027.

Nervous, but the selling was concentrated in a few places. The VIX, Wall Street's measure of expected stock volatility, ended up 8.91% at 21.15. The MOVE index, its equivalent for bond markets, barely changed at 100.36. Most stocks rose: by PrimerIQ's count, US advancers beat decliners 3,363 to 2,720, and in the UK they outnumbered them roughly two to one. The losses were concentrated in tech and energy. Investors were not running for safety either: gold is 1.26% lower at $3,919.40 and the dollar index is little changed at 101.69.

No major UK data came out at 07:00. The overnight event was the RBA's rate rise, announced at 03:30 GMT. Swiss October CPI is due this morning. In the US, September JOLTS job openings are due at 15:00 GMT (10:00 ET). Then come the midterm elections: the first polls close around midnight GMT, and results will arrive through the early hours of Wednesday UK time. The Bank of England announces its rate decision on Thursday.

Europe's early results were mixed. Bayer beat third-quarter sales and EBITDA forecasts and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to €9.8–10.3bn. Hugo Boss cut its full-year EBIT forecast to €250–300m, and Lufthansa trimmed its profit outlook because of fuel costs. Alstom, which fell 26.09% on Monday, was downgraded this morning by JPMorgan and Citi.