What moved
- US (Monday's close): the S&P 500 ended 0.70% higher at 7,676.77, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.82% and the Dow 0.28%. Futures are the only live read on the US: S&P 500 futures are down 0.12% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.44%.
- Europe (Monday's close): the FTSE 100 finished up 0.72% at 10,767.33, the DAX gained 0.91% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.79%.
- Asia: the region split. The Kospi closed 3.09% higher and the Nikkei 1.73%, but mainland China sold off into the close, with Shanghai down 1.33% and the Shenzhen Component down 2.5%. The Hang Seng is 0.78% lower late in its session.
- Brazil: the Bovespa ended Monday down 13.88% at 176,608.
Why
Two stories set the tone. The first is Brazil. President Lula's run-off victory over Flávio Bolsonaro reversed a rally that had been betting on a right-wing government after Bolsonaro unexpectedly led the first round. Investors fear looser public spending and a heavier state hand, so they sold domestic lenders and other local-economy names hardest. A circuit breaker halted trading for 30 minutes, the real slumped and the Treasury cancelled bond auctions scheduled for today and Thursday. Lula's choice of finance minister is now the market's test of his commitment to fiscal discipline.
The second is Anthropic's public IPO filing for a Nasdaq listing. Its fast revenue growth revived the AI trade, lifting chipmakers on Wall Street and then Samsung and SK Hynix in Seoul, where foreign buyers returned after a bruising month. Mainland China did not follow. Chinese AI and chip stocks kept sliding, and better September industrial profits did not help, a sign that crowded positions are still being unwound.
Oil is harder to read. Brent is down 4.06% at $111.11 on hopes for US–Iran de-escalation after Saudi–Iranian talks, yet WTI is up 0.29% at $102.06. That split suggests the Brent figure overstates any real easing of supply fears, with Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure still in play. Nasdaq futures are giving back part of Monday's rally ahead of the Fed and Wednesday's Microsoft and Alphabet results.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Risk appetite is cautious rather than panicked. The VIX is little changed at 18.43, and the MOVE index of bond-market volatility eased 1.08% to 102.19. The US rally was narrow. Our own breadth count across PrimerIQ's US universe shows 2,970 stocks rising against 2,987 falling. In the sector ETFs, technology gained 1.69% while communication services lost 1.57%. Europe was broader, with 2,214 advancers to 1,530 decliners on our count. The usual safe havens are not in demand: gold is down 0.53% at $4,016.90 and the 10-year Treasury yield was barely changed at 4.986% (−0.2bp). The dollar index is up 0.18%.
Economic calendar
The ONS did not publish anything market-moving at 07:00 today. The UK figure that matters came out overnight: the BRC's shop price inflation rose to 2.1% in October, against forecasts of 1.6% and 1.4% in September. That makes the inflation picture less comfortable for the Bank of England. Sterling is down 0.36% at $1.3329, but that move tracks the firmer dollar more than the data.
The US calendar starts in the afternoon. September durable goods orders are due at 12:30 GMT (08:30 ET), and October Conference Board consumer confidence, new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index follow at 14:00 GMT (10:00 ET). The FOMC opens its two-day meeting today. Markets widely expect it to hold rates when it announces its decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, after hotter-than-expected inflation, with analysts looking for a hawkish pause under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Earnings
HSBC's third-quarter pre-tax profit rose 32% to $9.6bn, broadly in line with forecasts. Much of the increase came from the absence of last year's legal provisions. The bank kept its 2026 guidance and announced a further buyback of up to $1bn. The London open will give the first clear read on how the stock takes it.