What moved
Wall Street ended Friday sharply lower. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.86% at 25,437, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580 and the Dow lost 1.09%. The Nasdaq now sits 8.25% below its 52-week high. Futures are the only live read on the US this morning: S&P 500 futures are up 0.61% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.02%.
Europe is trading modestly higher. The DAX is up 0.31%, the CAC 40 is up 0.38% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39%, while the FTSE 100 is 0.15% lower as oil weighs on its energy majors. Asia closed mixed. The Kospi rose 2.24% and Shanghai gained 1.08%, while the Nikkei slipped 0.33% and Taiwan fell 0.65%.
Why
Oil is the morning's main story. Brent is down 9.64% at $106.30 and WTI is down 6.39% at $97.47, as Iranian and Qatari officials hold a third day of talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war with Iran. Nothing has been agreed. Iran's foreign minister calls the talks ongoing and progressing, but Tehran is reported to want the US naval blockade lifted first. Traders are reacting mainly to a weekend without major escalation. Cheaper crude eases the inflation worry that has been pushing up bond yields, so it helps rate-sensitive stocks.
The tech bounce follows a heavy Friday. Intel lost 28.58% after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $15bn–$16bn, against roughly $17.1bn expected. It blamed a PC slump caused by AI-driven memory prices, plus an extended shutdown at its Israeli plant after an explosion. Reddit fell 29.22% after warning that daily users could fall by a low double-digit percentage as AI search answers more questions directly. Together they deepened doubts about whether heavy AI spending will pay off.
The Fed is the second weight on the market. Last Wednesday it held rates at 3.75–4.00%, but two policymakers voted for a hike, which keeps a December increase in play. A buoyant pre-market does not remove that risk.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Friday's sell-off was broad. Across PrimerIQ's US universe, decliners outnumbered advancers 4,317 to 1,742. The technology ETF fell 4.89% while energy and consumer staples rose 1.91% and 1.41%, a defensive rotation rather than outright panic. The VIX is at 18.96, down 0.46 points, which is not stressed. Rates are more nervous: the MOVE index of bond volatility closed Friday up 7.12% at 100.2. This morning the 10-year Treasury yield is down 2.5bp at 4.904% and the 30-year is down 3.5bp. The dollar index is off 0.31%. Gold is up 1.51% at $3,957.90, a sign that some hedging demand remains despite the futures bounce.
Economic calendar
No significant US data came out at 08:30 ET, so the morning's move rests on oil and positioning rather than a data print. The day's main release is the October ISM manufacturing index at 10:00 ET, with consensus at 54.6 against 54.5 previously. A firm reading would support the case for a December Fed hike. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 11:15 ET.
After today the week gets busier: the midterm elections and JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ISM services index on Wednesday and October payrolls on Friday. Each could shift expectations for the December Fed meeting.
Earnings
Marriott beat forecasts with adjusted EPS of $3.02 and raised its full-year RevPAR (revenue per available room) growth forecast to 4.5–5%, citing strong US demand. Its shares are higher pre-market. Estée Lauder, IDEXX and Entergy also beat earnings estimates before the open, Estée Lauder by the widest margin at $0.72 against roughly $0.51 expected.