Oil slide lifts futures as Nvidia probe tests a bruised AI trade

• US: Futures are the only live read before the bell. S&P 500 futures are up 0.83% at 7,463.25 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.82%. The cash indices last traded on Friday: the S&P 500 closed up 0.31% at 7,376.86, the Nasdaq rose 1.09% to 24,579.42 and the Dow fell 0.46% to 51,285.73. That left the S&P down 2.18% on the week.
• Europe (mid-session): The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.59%, the DAX 1.30%, the CAC 40 1.07% and the FTSE 100 0.88% at 10,768.29.
• Asia (closed): Taiwan jumped 4.94% and the Nikkei 225 rose 2.33%. The Kospi slipped 0.81%, the Hang Seng finished 0.13% lower and Shanghai added 0.32%.

Oil is the biggest single input this morning. Brent is down 4.05% at $94.34 and WTI is down 3.79% at $87.39 after President Trump said fresh strikes on Iran were unlikely while talks continue. Cheaper energy eases pressure on inflation just before tomorrow's CPI report. The 10-year Treasury yield is 1.6bp lower at 4.843%, and lower long-term yields support the value of growth stocks, whose profits lie further in the future. That combination is most of what futures are pricing.

The main risk is Nvidia. Its board has opened an independent investigation into reports that Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, after he admitted an affair to staff. The company says it has no reason to believe confidential information was compromised, and Huang stays on as chief executive. The shares are sharply lower in pre-market trading. The timing is awkward because last week's sell-off was about AI: the Democrats' midterm sweep raised fears that legislatures they control could slow the build-out of data centres. Nasdaq 100 futures are still keeping pace with the S&P 500 despite the fall in one of the index's heaviest stocks. That suggests traders see this as a risk tied to one executive, not to demand for AI chips.

In Europe, banks are leading. UniCredit raised its full-year profit target after a 24% jump in third-quarter profit, and Crédit Agricole proposed merging its Italian unit with Banco BPM. In Asia, Taiwan's chip stocks led the rebound from last week's rout. Seoul gave up an early gain and closed lower.

Fear has eased but has not gone away. The VIX is down 2.5 points at 23.14, yet it remains 52% higher than a month ago. The MOVE index of bond-market volatility closed Friday 5.26% lower at 92.77. Safe havens send mixed signals: gold is up 1.30% at $4,127.70 while the dollar index is down 0.42% at 101.869. A weaker dollar helps gold, but its rise alongside equities is not a clean risk-on signal. Friday's US rebound was narrow. The technology ETF rose 1.45% while consumer staples fell 1.28%. Our own US breadth count showed 3,279 advancers against 2,815 decliners. Our median technology stock gained 1.23% against a sector mean of 2.32%, so a handful of large winners did most of the work.

Nothing important printed at 08:30 ET. The rest of today's US calendar is second-tier: the New York Fed's October survey of consumer inflation expectations and September wholesale inventories. The week's real test is October CPI, due tomorrow, Tuesday, at 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT). After this morning's fall in oil, a soft reading would support the rebound, while a hot one would undo it. Europe has October inflation and third-quarter euro-area growth figures later in the week, and money markets are pricing an ECB rate rise by February.

Constellation Energy delivered the clearest beat before the open. Adjusted EPS was $5.06 against a consensus of about $3.89, and the company raised the midpoint of its full-year guidance, narrowing the range to $12.50–$12.80. KKR ($1.78 vs $1.58), Ferguson ($3.43 vs $3.29) and Barrick ($0.82 vs $0.79) also beat, and Roivant's loss was narrower than expected. None has yet produced a clear pre-market reaction.