What moved
Asia took the full force of Thursday's Wall Street rout. The Kospi ended 10.98% lower at 5,059.69, the Nikkei closed down 7.64% and Taiwan's index down 7.56%, leaving those last two more than 20% below their 52-week highs. Hong Kong went the other way, the Hang Seng finishing up 2.35%, while Shanghai lost 1.00%. Europe also closed lower: DAX down 1.92%, FTSE 100 down 1.01%, Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.98%, CAC 40 down 0.81%.
The US rebound was real but partial. The Nasdaq gained 1.09% to 24,579.42 and the S&P 500 added 0.31% to 7,376.86, having traded above 7,430 earlier. The Dow, above 51,600 at one point, lost 0.46% to 51,285.73. Over five sessions the S&P is down 2.18% and the Nasdaq 2.32%, and the Nasdaq sits 11.34% below its 52-week high.
Why
The morning's explanation, that the Democrats' midterm sweep threatens tighter AI regulation, accounts for the trigger better than the scale. Democrats plan January bills on data-centre electricity costs, testing of advanced AI systems and liability, and Texas's incoming governor has promised laws to protect communities from further build-out. But the AI trade was already strained by doubts over returns on heavily debt-funded spending, and margin calls and nervous retail and hedge fund selling amplified the fall. Friday supported the positioning argument: nothing on regulation changed, yet buyers returned to chips, with AMD up 11.04%. Asia's losses mostly reflect catching up with Thursday's US session.
The jobs report was the second force, and it cuts against equities, because a hotter labour market gives the Fed more reason to raise rates. Futures-implied odds of a December quarter-point hike rose to about 77%. The 5-year yield closed up 4.0 basis points at 4.648% and the 10-year up 2.2 at 4.859%; shorter maturities track policy expectations most closely. New York Fed president John Williams called inflation 'absolutely too high' on Friday.
Whether that caused the late US fade is unproven, and major coverage offered no convincing reason for Hong Kong's gain either. Oil is steadier: Brent is trading at $97.84, down 6.61% over five sessions, on hopes the election result nudges Washington towards de-escalation with Iran.
Sentiment & risk appetite
This was relief, not calm. The VIX closed down 9.01% at 25.64 but is still up 21.23% over five sessions; the MOVE index of bond volatility fell 5.26% to 92.77. Our own breadth count shows how thin the US bounce was, at 3,263 advancers to 2,803 decliners, against 2,317 to 10,744 in Asia and 245 to 650 in the UK. Our US sector medians ranged from +1.23% in technology to -1.28% in consumer defensives; Asian technology's median was -3.74%. Havens were selective: gold is down 0.96% at $4,074, while the dollar index, up 0.73% at 102.29, sits within 0.64% of its 52-week high, a move that looks driven by rates more than fear.
Economic calendar
US payrolls, released at 08:30 ET today, rose 165,000 in October against forecasts of roughly 59,000 to 65,000, with 84,000 of upward revisions to the prior two months. Unemployment was 4.1% against 4.2% expected, and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% on the year against 2.9% expected.
At 10:00 ET, the University of Michigan's preliminary November sentiment index came in at 51 against 48 expected, with year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 4.3% from 4.7%. Nothing of consequence remains today. The Fed's target range stands at 3.75% to 4%.
Earnings
Results split sharply. JFrog closed up 33.93% after third-quarter revenue grew 31% and cloud revenue 60%; DraftKings fell 21.30% on a wider loss and weak guidance, and Atlassian lost 16.15% as a slower subscription growth outlook overshadowed a beat. Moderna reported EPS of $0.38 against an expected loss of about $1.25 and lifted its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%. None of the large names on our calendar reported after tonight's close, so there is no fresh after-hours verdict.