Nvidia beat lifts US futures as GDP is trimmed to 1.5%

Wall Street finished Wednesday almost exactly where it started — the S&P 500 closed down 0.02%, the Nasdaq Composite off 0.08% and the Dow 0.21% lower. The live read on the American day is in futures, and there the mood has shifted: S&P 500 futures are up 0.29% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.83%, pointing to a firmer open after Nvidia's results landed overnight.

Europe is mid-session and split: the DAX is up 0.27% while the CAC 40 trails, down 1.17%, and the FTSE 100 is 0.39% lower. Asia has closed mixed — the Kospi (+1.53%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.13%) firm, while the Nikkei 225 (-0.20%) and Hang Seng (-0.34%) eased back.

The overnight story is Nvidia. Its results beat expectations and, crucially, its guidance pointed to AI demand holding up well into next year — the single question that has hung over this market all summer. That, alongside well-received numbers from Salesforce and CrowdStrike, has done the heavy lifting behind the bid in tech futures; the Nasdaq 100 contract is outpacing the broad S&P future by a wide margin, which tells you the move is concentrated, not broad.

The macro cut the other way but did no real damage. The second estimate of second-quarter GDP was revised down to a 1.5% annualised pace, from 2.1% in the first quarter, a reminder that the economy is cooling even as equities push higher. Weekly jobless claims, though, fell to 206,000 — below the 210,000 the market looked for — so the labour market is not yet corroborating the growth slowdown, and yields barely moved on the numbers.

Europe's laggard has its own, unrelated cause: luxury. The CAC's underperformance is a China-demand story running through LVMH, Hermès and Kering, not a read on today's US data.

The tape reads risk-on but narrow. The VIX sits at 15.02, and rates volatility is subdued with the MOVE index at 69.4 after Wednesday's close, so there is no fear premium to speak of. Yet Wednesday's breadth was poor — our US universe saw decliners outnumber advancers, an advance/decline ratio of 0.79 — so the flat index masked a market where most names fell. Sector dispersion said the same: industrials (+1.09%) and technology (+0.61%) led while health care (-1.0%) and consumer discretionary (-0.67%) lagged. Gold's 0.91% rise to $4,640 alongside firmer equity futures is the one note of caution: some money is paying up for a hedge even as stocks lift.

The morning's data came at 08:30 ET. The second estimate of second-quarter GDP was trimmed to a 1.5% annualised rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, confirming a softer growth trajectory. In the same release, weekly initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, under the roughly 210,000 expected — a still-tight labour market that offsets the weaker growth read. With the key numbers now out, the calendar quiets and the session's attention turns to whether the Nvidia-led futures bid holds into the cash open.

The pre-market slate leaned positive. Dollar Tree blew past forecasts, reporting $2.70 a share against a $1.14 consensus, a 137% surprise, and Canada's big banks delivered too — Toronto-Dominion beat by 12% and CIBC by 8%. The retail read is still coloured by Abercrombie & Fitch, which surged 35.7% on Wednesday after raising its full-year outlook, helped by a $100m tariff refund.