What moved
Wall Street closed fractionally lower on Wednesday, marking time before Nvidia's results: the S&P 500 ended at 7,675.7 (−0.02%), the Nasdaq Composite −0.08% and the Dow −0.21%. Those are last night's closing levels; with US cash shut, futures are the only live read — and after blockbuster after-hours numbers from Nvidia and Salesforce they point higher, S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.5%.
Asia is mixed. The Nikkei is off 0.3% and the Hang Seng 0.4%, while Australia's market closed down 1.1%; against that, mainland China is firmer (Shanghai +0.8%, Shenzhen +1.1%) and the Kospi has added 0.9%. Europe's Wednesday close was quietly positive — the DAX and CAC 40 each edged up, the FTSE 100 flat at 10,878 (−0.07%).
Why
The overnight story is Nvidia. Second-quarter revenue of $96.2bn and EPS of $2.22 both beat, but it was the forward signal that mattered: a commitment from Amazon Web Services to buy two million more of its GPUs, and supply commitments that more than doubled to $279bn — answering the fear that hyperscaler AI spending is peaking. The shares rose more than 4% after hours. Management did flag gross margins bottoming in the low-70s next quarter on higher memory costs; a caveat, not a brake.
Salesforce reinforced the tone, jumping about 14% post-close on a record quarter, raised guidance and a $2.6bn paper gain on its stake in Anthropic. Because both landed after the closing bell, the enthusiasm shows up in futures rather than in the flat index prints above.
The cash session itself was cautious and narrow, investors reluctant to commit before the print. Cross-currents remain: gold climbed 1.4% to about $4,660 and Brent fell 2% to $86, extending a near-9% five-day slide, while copper trades within a whisker of its 52-week high.
Sentiment & risk appetite
The volatility backdrop is calm — the VIX ended at 15.21 and the MOVE index of rates volatility at 69.4, both well down on the month. Yet the tape was narrower than that calm suggests: across PrimerIQ's US universe decliners led advancers 3,231 to 2,565, an advance-decline ratio of 0.79. Leadership was cyclical — industrials, technology and energy firmer — while health care (−1.0%), real estate and consumer discretionary lagged. Gold's bid is a mild hedge against otherwise low-fear positioning.
Economic calendar
The UK calendar is light this morning: none of the market-moving ONS series — CPI, GDP, the labour market or retail sales — is scheduled today, so there is no 07:00 print to react to. The day's test is American, at 13:30 BST (08:30 ET): the second estimate of US second-quarter GDP and the weekly initial jobless claims, the first labour-market read since last week. The next major inflation gauge, PCE, follows later in the week.
Earnings
The results that matter already landed after Wednesday's US close: Nvidia and Salesforce both beat and rallied roughly 4% and 14% in extended trade, and are the reason futures firmed overnight. In the cash session, Abercrombie & Fitch soared 35.7% on a large second-quarter beat, raised full-year guidance and a tariff refund.