Wall Street steady before Nvidia as oil tumbles on fading Iran risk

Wall Street closed higher last night: the S&P 500 finished up 0.32% at 7,677, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.66% and the Dow 0.30%. That is last night's cash close, and with US markets shut the futures are the only live read this morning — both have drifted lower, S&P futures off 0.13% and Nasdaq futures 0.22%, as caution builds ahead of Nvidia's results after tonight's US close.

Asia has traded firmer overnight. The Hang Seng is up 0.82%, the Shanghai Composite 0.64%, the Kospi 1.1% and the Nikkei 0.63%, while Taiwan's market closed 1.47% higher. Europe finished yesterday on a steadier footing — the DAX rose 0.61% and the FTSE 100 0.29% — with Paris the outlier, the CAC 40 slipping 0.16%.

One event overshadows everything: Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results after the US close tonight, with the market looking for around $2.09 in earnings per share. As the clearest gauge of AI spending, its numbers and outlook set the tone for the entire technology complex, and the softness in US index futures this morning is best read as positioning before that print rather than any fresh bad news. Chip-heavy Asian markets rebounded into the event.

The cleanest overnight macro move was in crude. Brent fell 3.15% to $85.79 and WTI 1.89% to $80.80 as signs of diplomatic progress with Iran, and US sanctions that landed lighter than feared, drained the war-risk premium that had been supporting prices. Cheaper energy eases the inflation hit for import-dependent economies, which helped Asian risk appetite; it also left energy the weakest corner of the US tape yesterday.

Underneath, the safe-haven complex stayed well bid. Gold rose 1.14% to $4,691 and Treasuries rallied, the 10-year yield down 6.5 basis points to 4.64% and the 30-year off 5.7bp, as bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts firmed. Lower long yields matter to richly valued growth stocks, and that backdrop has underpinned the tech leadership.

The tape reads poised rather than euphoric. The VIX slipped 2.52% to 15.45 and the MOVE gauge of rates volatility fell to 71.9, so there is no stress in the price of protection. PrimerIQ's own breadth was positive but unspectacular — US advancers led decliners 1.26 to one, Asia a broader 1.89 to one. Dispersion tells the real story: in the US, technology led (+0.94%) while energy (-1.66%) and consumer staples (-1.06%) lagged, a narrow, AI-led tape. The simultaneous bid for gold and bonds alongside gains in equities points to hedged conviction, not a clean risk-on sweep. The dollar was flat, the index at 98.99 and sterling at $1.3629.

Nothing of consequence printed in the London window this morning; the UK data calendar is light today. The day's tests come later. At 13:30 BST (8:30 ET) the US releases July durable goods orders, with consensus looking for a gain of about 0.6% — a read on business investment that has been losing some momentum. The main event lands after the US close, around 21:20 BST, when Nvidia reports.

The biggest corporate story overnight was Dick's Sporting Goods, which cratered 30.7% after a second-quarter miss and a sharp cut to full-year guidance, driven by mounting losses at its newly acquired Foot Locker business. At the other extreme, Moderna surged 14.4% after it and partner Merck reported that their personalised mRNA cancer vaccine met the primary endpoint in a late-stage melanoma trial. Nvidia and a raft of software names report after tonight's close.