What moved
US equities closed broadly lower. The S&P 500 ended down 0.87% at 7,641, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.32% — the weakest of the three.
Europe was mixed to softer: the FTSE 100 finished a fraction higher (+0.04%), while the DAX slipped 0.42% and the CAC 40 lost 0.57%. Asia had already set the heavy tone hours earlier — the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.84% and mainland China led the falls, the Shanghai Composite off 2.17% and the Shenzhen Component down 4.44%, though Hong Kong's Hang Seng bucked the trend with a 0.89% gain.
Why
The proximate driver was rates. Wednesday's Treasury announcement that it would sharply step up buybacks of long-dated debt had pulled yields down; today that move partly reversed, with the 10-year yield backing up 4.3 basis points to 4.70% and the 30-year adding 4.3bp to 5.24%. Feeding the turn was a hawkish read of the Fed minutes released Wednesday, which showed policymakers still preoccupied with inflation even as a steeper long end does some tightening for them. Higher long yields press hardest on richly-valued growth names — the cost of their far-off earnings rises — and tech duly lagged.
Walmart set the tone before the bell. Earnings beat, at 81 cents against 74 expected, and management lifted full-year guidance, but US same-store sales came in soft and much of the profit was flattered by a one-off tariff refund. The shares sold off, and the read-through — that even the strongest US consumer name is straining — did wider damage.
The day's other story ran the opposite way. Bitcoin jumped 5.0% and XRP 12.6% after a White House meeting with crypto executives, easier financial conditions and a large short squeeze combined; gold rose 1.9% and Brent added 2.0%.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Risk appetite cooled without cracking. The VIX rose 7.5% to 16.01 — a sharp move in percentage terms, but off a low base that still signals no real fear — while the MOVE index of rates volatility firmed 2.7% to 73.2. The clearest tell was sector dispersion: nine of eleven S&P groups fell, health care worst at -1.87% and consumer discretionary -1.61%, with only energy (+0.27%) and real estate (+0.20%) higher. Gold's bid points to some haven demand, though the dollar barely budged.
Economic calendar
The calendar was light. Weekly initial jobless claims, out at 8:30am ET, fell to 206,000 for the week to 15 August, below the roughly 210,000 expected — a steady labour-market read that gave the doves little fresh ammunition. The Fed minutes that coloured the session were Wednesday's, not today's; do not read them as a fresh print. Nothing of consequence lands after the close. The week's marquee event, the Jackson Hole symposium on 27–29 August — with Fed chair Kevin Warsh due to deliver the keynote — is still a week out.
Earnings
Walmart was the headline print: adjusted EPS of 81 cents beat the 74-cent consensus and it raised full-year guidance, but soft US comparable sales and the tariff refund flattering the beat sent the shares lower. Deere also beat, posting $5.10 against about $4.71 expected. Ross Stores reported after the close; its numbers were not yet in as this went out.