What moved
US indices finished Monday mixed: the Dow rose 0.26% to 53,417 as defensive buying held up, but the Nasdaq fell 0.76% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.28%, dragged lower by technology. Those are last night's closes — the only live read on the American day is futures, and they have firmed, with S&P 500 contracts up 0.36% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.76%.
Europe is higher at midday, the DAX up 0.70% and the CAC 40 0.27%, while the FTSE 100 is broadly flat. Asia has closed firmer: the Nikkei added 0.50% and Korea's Kospi 0.68%, though the Hang Seng ended a fraction lower.
Why
Monday's US weakness was narrow and sat in technology. Memory names led it down — Micron, Sandisk and Seagate all fell more than 5% — after China's CXMT stormed higher in its Shanghai debut and Yangtze Memory filed to list, reviving fears that new Chinese supply erodes the pricing power behind this year's memory rally. With Nvidia's results due Wednesday, traders trimmed AI exposure into the print; our US technology names fell a median 1.38% while defensives rose. Futures have since steadied and turned up.
The bid underneath is rates. After Powell's dovish Jackson Hole message, markets now put a high probability on a Federal Reserve cut next month, and softer jobs and retail data have hardened those bets. Treasury yields eased across the curve — the 10-year down 3.6 basis points to 4.67% — and gold added 1.15%, leaving it up about 15% on the month.
Oil is the day's other big move: Brent is off 4.54% and WTI 3.05%. Last week's spike on Washington's new Iran sanctions push is unwinding on profit-taking and hopes that flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, easing the supply premium.
Sentiment & risk appetite
The tape is orderly, not fearful. The clearest tell is rotation: on Monday Consumer Staples rose 1.7% and Financials 1.29% while Technology fell 1.78% — a wide dispersion that flags a narrow, defensive market rather than a broad advance. Our US breadth was negative underneath the mixed indices, with 2,597 advancers against 3,278 decliners. Yet the VIX sits at just 15.87, well below its recent range, and the mild haven tilt — bid gold, lower yields, a flat dollar at 99.01 — reads as positioning for cuts, not a rush for cover.
Economic calendar
The 08:30 ET slot was quiet; the heavier US data comes later this morning. June S&P/Case-Shiller home prices are due at 9:00 ET, followed at 10:00 by August Consumer Confidence, July new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. They land into a market that, after Jackson Hole, assigns a high probability to a Fed cut in September, so any signal on the consumer or on housing will be read through that lens. The heavier durable-goods print falls tomorrow, not today.
Earnings
Dick's Sporting Goods, out before the bell, is the morning's disappointment: adjusted earnings of $3.53 a share on revenue of $5.59bn undershot consensus, and management cut full-year guidance to a $11–12 range against a far higher Street number, blaming a soft athletic-footwear market at its Foot Locker business; the shares fell in pre-market trade. Canada's Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia also reported ahead of the open.