Futures dip into Nvidia's night as oil slides and durable-goods data lands

Wall Street ended higher last night — the S&P 500 closed up 0.32% at 7,677, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.66% and the Dow up 0.30%. Those are yesterday's closes; the only live read on the US day is futures, and they have edged back this morning, S&P contracts off 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.37% as traders trim risk ahead of tonight.

Europe is firmer mid-session: the DAX is up 0.47%, the CAC 40 up 0.74% and the FTSE 100 broadly flat at +0.04%, the energy-heavy London index held back by the oil slide. Asia finished the day higher, the Nikkei up 0.62%, the Hang Seng up 0.56% and the Kospi up 0.97%; Australia's market was the regional exception, closing down 0.40%.

The clearest driver is in oil. Brent has fallen 3.77% to $85.24 and WTI 2.57% to $80.24, extending a sharp multi-day slide as signs of diplomatic movement in the Gulf — reported talks between Iran and its neighbours over the Strait of Hormuz — ease the supply-disruption premium that had built into the price. That drop is doing double duty: it drags on energy majors, the weakest corner of yesterday's tape and of Europe's this morning, while quietly helping the disinflation story that has underpinned rate-cut hopes.

Everything else is subordinate to positioning around Nvidia, which reports after the close. The lag in Nasdaq futures relative to the broader market, and the reluctance to add risk pre-bell, both read as investors declining to press the AI trade into a number that can reset the whole complex. Its results and, more importantly, its guidance will set the tone for Thursday.

Single-stock stories rounded out the session rather than defining it: Moderna surged 14.4% on late-stage cancer-vaccine data, while Dick's Sporting Goods collapsed 30.7% after cutting its full-year outlook.

The mood is constructive but unwilling to commit. The VIX sits at just 15.72, up a slim 1.75%, and the MOVE index of rates volatility eased to 71.9 — neither is flashing stress. Yet breadth was only moderate: across PrimerIQ's US universe advancers led decliners by roughly 1.26 to one yesterday, a positive but not broad tape. Dispersion tells the real story — technology led the sectors, up 0.94%, while energy fell 1.66% and staples 1.06%, a narrow, tech-dependent advance rather than a rising tide. Gold's 0.89% gain to $4,679 and a fractionally firmer dollar point to a market keeping one hand on defence.

The 08:30 ET slate carried the July durable goods report and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, whose advance reading was 1.5% annualised; consensus had looked for durable goods orders around +1.6% after a weak prior month. Still to come is the EIA weekly crude inventories report at 10:30 ET, watched closely given the move in oil. Yesterday's Conference Board consumer confidence had already softened, slipping to 89.4 with the expectations component down to 68.2 — a reminder that the household outlook is deteriorating even as headline activity holds. The day's dominant catalyst, though, is corporate rather than macro and falls after the close.

The pre-open results were reassuring at the consumer end: Williams-Sonoma reported a strong second quarter with better comparable sales, and J.M. Smucker delivered a large beat, earning $3.24 against a $2.21 consensus. Donaldson edged past estimates and National Bank of Canada beat by roughly 6%. The marquee technology names, led by Nvidia, do not report until after the bell, so the morning's earnings tone is set by steadier, defensive issuers.