Nasdaq futures bounce after Friday's chip rout as Russia waiver knocks oil

• US (closed Friday): The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15% and the S&P 500 lost 1.09%. The Dow held up better, down 0.34%. US cash markets are shut, so futures are the only live read: S&P 500 futures are up 0.75% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.39%.
• Europe (closed Friday): Europe finished higher and largely ignored New York's slide. The FTSE 100 rose 0.38% and closed within 1% of its 52-week high. The DAX gained 0.95% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.58%.
• Asia (today): The Nikkei is down 0.66% late in the session, while the Kospi has swung to a 1.52% gain and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.54%. Taiwan closed 0.61% lower. Hong Kong was shut for a holiday.

Friday's damage was concentrated in chips and AI infrastructure. Investors are growing more worried that heavily indebted AI builders cannot earn returns fast enough to cover rising financing costs. CoreWeave has become the focus of that fear: its share price and its bond prices have both been falling this month. Chip stocks fell even though Treasury yields barely moved. Normally that would steady growth stocks, whose value depends heavily on profits far in the future, so the selling looks like a reassessment of AI economics rather than a rates story. Rates still matter, though: bets on another Fed hike at next week's meeting have been building after hotter-than-expected US inflation data.

The overnight futures bounce looks like investors buying the dip before a heavy week of tech results, not a change in that thesis. Asia shows the same split. Tokyo, where the market is weighted towards chip-equipment names, opened sharply lower before trimming its losses. Seoul turned positive, but there is no clear catalyst for the turn beyond the firmer US futures.

Oil is the other moving part. Brent is down 2.08% at $107.58 and WTI 4.19% lower at $97.16. Late on Friday, Washington suspended some sanctions and tariffs on Russia, which could free up more Russian fuel exports. That offsets, for now, the Middle East supply risk that lifted crude on Friday, with attacks on Saudi sites and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved.

Friday was a narrow, defensive tape. In the US, our own breadth count had decliners beating advancers by almost two to one (2,108 up against 4,014 down). The VIX jumped 21.45% to 19.99. The sector gap was stark: technology fell 3.02% while energy gained 2.52%, and utilities and consumer staples each rose more than 1%. Haven demand was modest. Gold is up 0.41% at $4,198, the dollar index is flat at 101.87, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose just 0.9bp to 5.098%. The MOVE index, which tracks expected bond-market volatility, eased 1.35%. This was a rotation out of crowded tech, not a flight from risk. Europe's advancers outnumbered decliners by 1.64 to one on our count.

China's third-quarter GDP, released this morning, showed growth of 4.5% year on year. That was slightly ahead of the 4.4% forecast and up from 4.3% in the second quarter. Exports drove the gain, while property and infrastructure investment stayed weak, and markets barely reacted. As far as we can confirm, nothing of consequence printed in the UK at 07:00.

The main release later today is Canada's September CPI, due in the North American morning. The bigger UK tests come later in the week: labour-market data on Tuesday and September CPI on Wednesday, where inflation is expected at 3.4% against 3.1% previously. The Fed is in its pre-meeting quiet period, so no Fed speakers are expected before its decision on 28 October at 18:00 GMT.

Nothing material had reported by the time of writing, so the morning's tone comes from Friday's sell-off rather than fresh results. Today's US slate is listed in the table below. The week's real test of the AI trade is Wednesday evening.