What moved
Wall Street closed sharply higher. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 27,244.28, up 2.72%, leaving it within 0.2% of its 52-week high; the S&P 500 finished 1.49% up at 7,764.64. The Dow lagged badly, adding just 0.35% to 51,863.69 — a gap that tells you exactly where the buying went.
Europe had already closed firmly: the DAX rose 1.09%, the CAC 40 1.11% and the Euro Stoxx 50 1.42%, while the FTSE 100 managed a more modest 0.46% to 10,708.33. Asia has declined to join in. The Hang Seng is trading 0.84% lower at 24,832.34 and the Shanghai Composite is off 0.27%; the Kospi is the exception, up 0.69%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.1% — the only live read on the American day, and it points to a flat open.
Why
Two things did the work overnight, and they are connected. Crude has extended its slide into a fifth session on reports — which Tehran has partly disputed — that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if Washington eases its blockade and military pressure. WTI is trading at $89.26, down 5.63% and 12.41% over five sessions; Brent is at $98.41, off 0.85%. That is a straightforward disinflationary impulse: cheaper energy lowers the input costs that have kept central banks cautious, which is why the 10-year Treasury yield eased three basis points to 4.968% and the 30-year 2.8bp to 5.303%.
Lower yields matter most to the longest-duration assets, and that is where the second driver landed. The AI and semiconductor complex was bid hard again — technology was the strongest US sector, up 3.52% on the day, with communication services up 2.45%. The cost of that trade was paid by energy, down 3.93%, and by financials, off 1.90%, which suffer as the front end holds up while the long end falls.
Asia's reluctance this morning is profit-taking in tech after three firmer sessions, with investors also waiting on the signal from an expected Xi–Trump meeting on semiconductors and trade. There is no fresh bad news behind it; it is position management, not a change of view.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Risk appetite is genuinely constructive rather than merely hopeful. The VIX ended at 14.21, down 4.05% and nearly 20% lower over five sessions, and the MOVE index of rates volatility fell 2.58% to 78.6 — both vol markets settling together is unusual and meaningful. Gold slipped 0.22% to $4,366.70 despite the dollar firming 0.31%, so no one is paying up for cover.
Breadth supports the tape without flattering it. On PrimerIQ's own US universe, 3,194 names advanced against 2,562 decliners, a ratio of 1.25 — positive, but thin next to a 2.72% Nasdaq move, and our US sector medians show financials at -0.87% and energy at -1.09% while basic materials led at +2.19%. Asia is the weak spot: our ratio there is 0.77, with more fallers than risers.
Economic calendar
The overnight calendar was almost bare. Australia's flash S&P Global PMIs for September were the only scheduled Asian release, watched mainly for the price components ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 29 September decision, where the market expects a rise in the cash rate.
The day's real tests are still ahead. Eurozone flash PMIs land at 09:00 CEST (08:00 BST), with the composite expected to ease to around 51.7 from 52.0 — manufacturing forecast stronger, services a touch softer. The UK flash composite follows at 09:30 BST, consensus close to 52.3 against 52.5 last month; that is the sterling event of the morning, with the pound already 0.43% weaker at $1.3313 and the dollar index up 0.31%. US flash PMIs complete the set in the afternoon, at 14:45 BST.
Earnings
Kingfisher's half-year figures, out yesterday rather than this morning, remain the standout: adjusted pre-tax profit of £404m, up 9.9%, with full-year guidance lifted to £595m–£635m as trade demand through Screwfix offset a soft DIY consumer. The shares closed 12.43% higher. JD Sports has reported this morning — its first substantive update since August's cut to FY27 pre-tax profit guidance, to £700m–£800m — and goes into the print having risen 6.41% yesterday, so the bar is not low.