What moved
- US (Friday close): S&P 500 +0.17% at 7,650.50; Nasdaq +0.39%; Dow -0.18% at 51,682.64. Futures now: S&P 500 +1.17% at 7,747.25, Nasdaq 100 +1.70% — the only live read on the American day.
- Europe (Friday close): FTSE 100 -1.45% at 10,659.13; DAX -1.60%; CAC 40 -1.49%; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.37%.
- Asia (today): Hang Seng +0.64% and Shanghai +0.69% in afternoon trade; Kospi +1.49% at 6,997.06; Taiwan closed +1.14%, within about 1% of its 52-week high. Tokyo is shut until Thursday for holidays; the Nikkei's last print was Friday's +1.38% at 65,018.95.
Why
The overnight bid has two sources, and both are about relief rather than new growth. First, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday's talks in New York with Vice Premier He Lifeng were 'a very successful engagement', setting up the Trump–Xi meeting in Washington later this week. Nothing concrete on tariffs or purchases has been disclosed, so this is a mood improvement, not a deal — but after a week dominated by central banks it was enough to lift Asia and put US futures more than 1% higher.
Second, oil. Brent is down 6.2% at $97.43 and WTI 6.26% at $94.02 as Saudi shipments partially recover and Strait of Hormuz traffic improves, even as Houthi attacks continue and the US–Iran standoff is unresolved. Cheaper crude matters more than usual this cycle because it was spiralling oil that pushed the Fed into last week's 25bp rise, the first in three years, with policymakers signalling another may follow. The Bank of England held but flagged a possible November move and paused sales of long-dated gilts after the bond turmoil. Every dollar off Brent is a little less pressure on that tightening path.
The offsets are real. The US 10-year closed Friday at 4.998%, up 5.1bp, and the 30-year at 5.331%, up 3.5bp: a cost of capital that explains why Friday's session was narrow and why Europe sold off hard into the weekend. Friday's European losses were led by autos after Volkswagen cut its outlook and flagged €10bn of one-off charges (the shares fell 8.31% on our feed), and by telecoms after Airtel Africa dropped 11.27% on reports its mobile-money unit may shrink its London IPO. Coca-Cola HBC's 7.85% fall has no clean explanation we could confirm.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Equity volatility is subdued — the VIX finished Friday at 14.81, down 4.08% — but rates volatility is not: the MOVE index rose 5.79% to 80.6, which is where the real stress sits. Friday's US tape was narrow: PrimerIQ's own breadth count shows 2,235 advancers against 3,577 decliners (a 0.62 ratio) even as the S&P closed higher, and sector dispersion was wide, with technology +0.82% while utilities and materials each fell 1.42% and communication services 1.37%. Asia is the mirror image — our breadth there ran 8,015 up to 4,329 down, a 1.85 ratio, led by technology. Safe havens are not being bought: gold is off 0.86% at $4,387, the dollar index is firmer at 100.35, and copper is up 1.69%. Read it as risk appetite returning at the index level, but concentrated in semiconductors and hostage to the bond market.
Economic calendar
Nothing of consequence printed at 07:00 London this morning — there is no ONS release scheduled today — and the only overnight data point was China's loan prime rates, held on Sunday at 3.0% (one-year) and 3.5% (five-year) for a 16th month, as expected. The week's data is light and back-loaded: flash PMIs for the eurozone, UK and US land on Wednesday (US at 14:45 BST / 09:45 ET), with US jobless claims Thursday and durable goods Friday. Today is about speakers: ECB President Lagarde and Cipollone, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee and the Bank of Canada's Macklem are all scheduled, and Goolsbee is the first FOMC voice since the hike. The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index is the only American release. Xi's state visit to Washington is pencilled in for Thursday.
Earnings
Nothing material has reported this morning; the London calendar is empty of large-cap results. Friday's corporate news is what the market is still digesting — Volkswagen's guidance cut and charges, and Softcat's $1.05bn agreed purchase of US-based GDT, which sent its shares down 3.71%.