What moved
Monday's Wall Street close set the tone: the S&P 500 finished up 1.48% at 7,600, the Nasdaq Composite up 2.13% and the Dow up 1.32%, a broad advance led by big-tech and AI-infrastructure names. Those are last night's levels — the only live read on the US day is futures, and they point higher again, with S&P contracts up 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.14% after Palantir's post-close results.
Europe is firmer at midday: the DAX is up 0.73%, the Euro Stoxx 50 0.77%, the CAC 40 0.27% and the FTSE 100 0.32%. Asia has finished mixed — the Nikkei added 0.32% and the Kospi 1.62%, while the Hang Seng closed down 0.6% and Shanghai edged up 0.33%.
Why
The engine remains the AI-earnings cycle. Monday's rally rode a wave of strong big-tech results; after the bell Palantir reported roughly 94% revenue growth and lifted full-year guidance, its shares jumping double digits and pulling the AI-cloud complex — CoreWeave had already closed up 19.5% — into today's futures bid, which is why the Nasdaq contracts lead. Caterpillar reinforced the cyclical leg, posting record quarterly revenue of $20.5bn and adjusted EPS of $8.17 against $6.25 expected, its stock up around 9% pre-market on data-centre-driven construction demand.
The cross-currents are commodities and rates. Brent is down 2.32% and WTI down 3.0% as the US-Iran risk premium unwinds on reports of de-escalation, weighing on energy shares — the only red US sector on Monday. Gold is up 2.48% at $4,134 even with equities rallying, an unusual pairing that says haven demand has not left the building; a softer dollar, down 0.06%, and 10-year yields off 2.7bp are helping. Healthcare is the soft spot: AstraZeneca fell about 9% in London on reports of a $400bn merger approach from Bristol-Myers Squibb that left analysts perplexed.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Risk-on, but not indiscriminate. The VIX sits at 15.62, near the low end of its range, and our US breadth was firmly positive on Monday at 2.47 advancers per decliner. Sector dispersion tells the story: industrials and technology led (PrimerIQ's US medians near +2.2%) while energy was the lone faller. The tell to watch is the MOVE index of rates volatility, which jumped 18% to 80.5 at Monday's close — the bond market is less becalmed than the VIX implies.
Economic calendar
Nothing heavyweight has printed. The 8:30 ET release was June's trade balance, a second-tier number expected to show a deficit near $76.5bn — not enough to move the setup. The session's real macro test comes at 10:00 ET, with June factory orders and the JOLTS job-openings report. The openings figure matters most: any further cooling would feed the rate-cut debate that has underpinned the equity bid.
Earnings
The morning belongs to the beats. Caterpillar was the standout, with EPS of $8.17 against $6.25 expected on record revenue, sending the shares up around 9% pre-market; Pfizer ($0.77 versus $0.68), Merck (a narrower-than-feared loss) and McDonald's ($3.38 versus $3.32) all topped forecasts, and Marathon Petroleum crushed it at $17.73. Cummins was the exception, missing at $6.73 against a $7.33 estimate.