What moved
Semiconductors did the work. US cash is mid-session and higher, the S&P 500 trading at 7,508.51, up 0.88%, the Nasdaq Composite up 1.34% and the Dow up 0.85% — enough to break a three-session losing run.
Asia finished with a sharp split. The Shanghai Composite ended up 2.66%, the Taiwan Weighted up 3.66% and the Hang Seng up 2.32%. Japan and Korea did not join in: the Nikkei 225 closed down 0.90% and the Kospi down 1.07%. Europe closed firmly, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.94%, the DAX up 0.66%, the FTSE 100 up 0.58% at 10,585.91 and the CAC 40 up 0.28%.
Why
The trigger was a single sell-side call. Micron rose 10.1% after Morgan Stanley argued memory prices could climb 25% on continued AI demand, and the read-through swept the complex — Asian technology names in our universe posted a median gain of 4.90%, European technology a mean of 2.87%, and the US technology sector is up 2.72% on the day. That matters because memory pricing has been the market's cleanest proxy for whether AI capital spending is still accelerating; three sessions of chip selling had assumed it was not.
What did not recover tells you as much. Korea's Kospi is down 25.97% over the past month and sits 28.10% below its 52-week high, and the Nikkei is 9.06% off its own high — damage deep enough that a one-day sell-side upgrade does not repair it. Buying the bounce and buying the epicentre are different trades.
Running underneath is energy. Brent is up 2.05% at $91.05, a third straight session of gains, after a further tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats turned back Saudi crude shipping in the Red Sea. Copper, up 3.71%, is moving on the same industrial-supply anxiety.
Sentiment & risk appetite
Risk appetite is real but narrow. The VIX has fallen 8.42% to 17.08, yet gold is up 1.59% at $4,074.10 — an equity rally and a haven bid at once is not a clean risk-on tape. Rates volatility argues the same way: the MOVE index closed Monday up 6.60% at 72.66, and Treasury yields are higher across the curve, the 10-year up 3.2 basis points to 4.63% and the 5-year up 3.8.
Sector dispersion is stark. Technology up 2.72% against consumer staples down 1.03% and communication services down 0.64% is one theme carrying the index, not a broad advance. Breadth is better outside the US: our Asian universe saw 7,334 advancers to 5,103 decliners and UK 457 to 296, against 2,094 to 3,913 in the US in Monday's prior session.
Economic calendar
Nothing of consequence has printed. Tuesday's US calendar ran to weekly ADP employment at 16.5k and a Redbook retail reading of 7.8% — neither is a market event, and the FOMC does not meet until 28–29 July.
The next real test is UK inflation. June CPI lands at 07:00 BST on Wednesday, with Pantheon looking for 2.6% against May's 2.8% and Deutsche Bank at 2.7%; the Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%. Weekly EIA crude inventories follow at roughly 15:30 BST, unusually live given the Hormuz premium in Brent.
Earnings
Danaher is the cautionary tale of the session: revenue of $6.3bn and adjusted EPS of $1.94 both beat, and full-year guidance was raised to $8.45–8.60, but a third-quarter core revenue guide of just 2–3% sent the shares lower anyway. Sartorius closed down 8.51% in Frankfurt on a similar complaint about profitability guidance. Against that, 3M extended its post-results gain to 9.8% — the pattern this week is that the outlook, not the quarter, is being priced.